The Digital Whale

Section

Technologies

Connected devices, headsets, networks, cloud, and how to read a forecast.

Nobody independent counts connected devices, headset shipments or cloud market shares. Every headline figure in this section is a commercial analyst estimate, including the ones treated as authoritative, and that is stated each time. The section also keeps a record of specific forecasts made with dates attached, checked against what actually happened. For a practical example of software used to turn activity into operational metrics, see employee attendance tracking software.

Nearly every headline number here is a commercial analyst estimate, including the credible ones.

Evidence at a glance — every finding in this section, graded
ArticleFindings Strong / mixed / weak
5G and getting online
The measured story of 5G is capacity growing faster than anyone uses it, while 2.2 billion people remain offline for reasons that have little to do with coverage.
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The cloud and who runs it
British regulators have measured cloud concentration in detail; nobody measures aggregate downtime, the cost of outages or how much water data centres use.
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How to read a technology forecast
The three most-quoted technology forecasts of the last fifteen years all came from firms selling into the market they sized, and none published a method.
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Connected devices and the smart home
Nobody independent counts connected devices, and the household survey data that does exist shows the smart home is mostly televisions and speakers.
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Virtual and augmented reality
The strongest numbers in virtual reality are the losses and the clinical trials; the shipment forecasts and adoption claims come from vendor-funded trackers.
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